Nexus One outlook

The Google Nexus One is all of one week old now, but that's not stoping the sales estimates and now total market worth from rolling in. Above is a breakdown from Trefis, by way of TechCrunch, which has rolled the Nexus One into its financial forecast for GOOG.

The bottom line: Trefis predicts the Nexus One will make up almost $20 billion, or 9.3 percent, of GOOG's total market cap. By comparison, ad and searach partnerships make up 5.1 percent, Google Apps 3.2 percent, YouTube 2.4 percent and search ads 68.1 percent.

There's an awful lot of math going on here, ans well as an awful lot of assumptions. Probably the biggest is the impact that the Nexus One will have on Google in 2016. It's a spectacular phone. But what was the last smartphone product line you remember lasting six years?

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And by now you're probably thinking to yourself, "The Nexus One? With its network problems and lackluster sales?" Remember that this prediction looks into the future, not at the past week. Once the Nexus One hits other markets worldwide (and on Verizon, for starters, in the U.S.), then it's game-on.

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