Global smartphone sales will take a hit as tariffs bite, says IDC

What you need to know

• IDC has lowered its forecast of its smartphone sales in 2025 to 0.6%, reaching 1.24 billion units, due to the economic uncertainty brought about by U.S. tariffs.
• The report also predicts that smartphone sales will remain low for the next five years, averaging at 1.4%, as many users are retaining their phones for longer.
• U.S. and China remain the top contributors to the growth in smartphone sales this year, despite the increasing trade tensions between them.
• The report suggests that Apple will see a 1.9% decline in sales in China as Huawei takes the lead.

Electronics and more specifically smartphone sales have been at the center of the U.S. tariffs battle, and it seems like this could impact their overall sales this year. According to a new report released by IDC today (May 29), global smartphone sales are now predicted to grow only by 0.6% overall in 2025.

“Since April 2nd, the smartphone industry has faced a whirlwind of uncertainty. While current exemptions on smartphones have offered temporary relief, the looming possibility of broader tariffs presents a serious risk,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.

The global market intelligence firm said that it had to lower its earlier prediction of 2.3% that it made in February, due to the high uncertainty around fluctuating tariffs, economic challenges, "such as inflation and unemployment across many regions leading to a slowdown in consumer spending."

The report also states that smartphone sales will continue to remain low for the next five years, and may see single-digit growth, averaging at 1.4%. Several factors could cause this, and the firm attributes it to people retaining their phones for longer periods, and an increasing trend of buying refurbished smartphones instead of new ones, as they can be lighter on the pocket.

Furthermore, IDC's report claims that despite the ongoing tensions between China and the U.S., the two countries will be the major contributors to the said growth of 0.6% of smartphone sales.

"The US Market is forecast to grow 1.9% in 2025, but it was impacted from the ongoing US-China trade war as growth was pulled down from 3.3% due to increased uncertainty and tariff related price increases,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.

Android phone sales in China are said to increase by 3% YoY, due to the increase in government subsidies and discounts to push smartphone sales. Which is why Apple could see a 1.9% decline in sales as Huawei takes the spotlight.

Lastly, the firm notes that recent signals from the U.S. on a potential tariff hike on smartphones have only made the future uncertain for OEMs outside the U.S., with smartphone vendors who export to the U.S. having to deal with unnecessary geopolitics. As the Trump administration was recently levying 25% on phones built outside the U.S.

"Despite these headwinds, India and Vietnam are expected to remain the key alternatives to China for smartphone production,” Popal added.

However, it is important to note that earlier today, the U.S. Court of International Trade judges ruled to halt President Trump's recent 10% tariffs on "virtually every U.S. trade partner." The judges state that the administration's leverage of the IEEPA shouldn't qualify here, and that Trump has "exceeded" any rightful authority.